Can publishers survive the information revolution?
May 2001

Publishers like to complain "the sky is falling in," and, perhaps it is: as the world around them changes, publishers have been slow to innovate or adapt. Anyone who wants to consider the future of publishing might want to look at a couple of interesting, yet seemingly unrelated books that discuss how the industry might thrive in a world driven by information: Jason Epstein, Book Business: Publishing Past Present and Future (Norton, 2001) and Peter Drucker, Management Challenges for the 21st Century (HarperBusiness, 1999)

Epstein's elegant, thoughtful memoir of a life spent working in the trade begins appropriately with a quote from George Dangerfield's classic text on the demise of Britain's Liberal Party: "they did not realize that life consists in change, that nothing can stand still, that today's shrines are only fit for tomorrow's cattle. Clinging to the realities of the past, they prepared to defend their dead cause to the finish."

Thanks to television and videos, computer games and the Internet, and even PDAs and e-books, we've been led to believe that the printed word is dead, hence book publishers are doomed to the same fate as Dangerfield's Liberals. Book publishers do cling to the past, but Epstein doesn't think their cause is dead. Yes, the industry is constrained by obsolete technologies and a constricted marketplace, and its method of communicating to customers is outdated. Yet he offers a positive outlook for the book trade: recent technological advances actually offer publishing wannabees a "creative adventure far more consequential in its much different way than what awaited the generation of Liveright, Knopf, and Cerf eighty years ago." New technology can reconstruct this fading industry, "one that will, I believe, perform its historic task with unprecedented scope and unimaginable consequences."

The crucial element in his optimism is this: There are endless opportunities for publishers to think innovatively, to attract new ideas from interesting people, and to create new, useful, profitable knowledge products, but "whether [traditional] publishers adapt to this opportunity with foresight or leave it to others is unclear." And here lies the problem: the industry doesn't like to think differently. Just as publishers have traditionally left the agony of creation to authors, they have been complacent about their role as business people and, consequently, they have left the evolution of their business model to others, and to chance.

Publishers should be more bullish about their role in shaping, developing, and selling information. Who cares about the war on paper? Technology is giving people new ways to read, which is good. Perhaps the best way of thinking about publishing houses is as a full service communications shop. Instead of acquiring authors, publishers should be developing new clients for whom they develop a range of knowledge products: from books to speeches, advertising to web sites. If publishers would take on this expanded role as one-stop developers of information they might have a more vibrant future and a more positive outlook.

Like Epstein, Peter Drucker must feel equally bullish about the future of publishing because he thinks we're in the midst of a "New Information Revolution. " The key to this revolution, he claims, is not technology itself but the printed word. Of course, Drucker admits, there will be changes to our concept of a printed book, magazine, or newspaper, but the information they contain, however delivered or stored, remains a printed product.

Information is, to Drucker, the superior element in the communication firmament. In his view, the technology and the high-tech stars we've venerated for so long are destined to "support" status because they don't create information. The stars of the new revolution will be those who create and support the development of new information. Publishing is about creating new information, whether it is produced on an Adobe program or Heidelberg press. So what if companies like Adobe declare war on traditional paper publishing? Information rules and, as Drucker writes, "the market for information exists."

It would seem that publishers are ideally suited to benefiting from this information revolution. As companies learn to organize their knowledge as their key resource, the convergence of information production and distribution will create new opportunities. Publishers can create new business by showing individuals and businesses alike how to prepare, present, and promote their proprietary information.

We have to remember that technology is not taking reading away from us, it is giving us new ways to read. Rather than worry about the new forms, publishers should rejoice - their world is not ending - and adapt. For publishers who don't extend their capabilities there will be evolutionary adjustments and the sky will fall.

The Knowledge Marketing Inquiry: Can traditional publishers "adapt to this opportunity with foresight"? Send me your thoughts.

RobFerguson@KnowledgeMarketingGroup.com